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*methodology*/oceans/futures

Oceans Futures brings together data that has never been integrated, actionable, or accessible by national security, seafood markets, and conservation sectors.

Methodology  - Oceans Futures - WWF

Methodology | WWF / Oceans Futures

approach

## OCEANS FUTURES HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO MATCH THE INEVITABLE CHALLENGES FISHERIES WILL FACE AND PROVIDE FUTURE-PROOF SOLUTIONS FOR MORE PEACEFUL OCEANS, MORE SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES AND ECONOMIES, AND NUTRITIOUS BLUE FOOD FOR BILLIONS OF PEOPLE.

Phase 1 of Oceans Futures identifies the top 20 seascapes that will face increasing risk of conflict over fisheries due to climate change. Hotspots were identified by combining data projecting change in fish biomass by 2030 with socio-economic and security variables—including the presence of foreign fishing vessels, nutrition profiles, economic levels, and contested maritime borders—that help assess a country’s risk to fisheries conflict.

For more details, [download our Technical Documentation](https://stor.oceansfutures.org/oceansfuture-storage/assets/Oceans_Futures_Technical_Documentation_8a7787499c.pdf).

data

## EXPLORE OUR DATA SOURCES

We use open-source and publicly available datasets that represent the gold standard for analysis of global oceans, along with peer-reviewed scientific data from leading academic researchers.

[The full data set is available here to download.](https://stor.oceansfutures.org/oceansfuture-storage/assets/Oceans_Futures_data_v111823_265c8e6c45.xlsx)


### Fisheries distribution

The distribution and abundance of thousands of fish stocks will change under warming ocean temperatures. Warmer ocean waters, changes in currents, and impacts on ocean productivity and food webs will cause fish stocks to relocate in search of optimal water and food conditions. We used data from the [Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9) that uses Earth system models to project changes in marine animal biomass under different scenarios of climate change and ocean warming. Data are publicly available from the [Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project.](https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/)

--_Reference_--

--Tittensor, DP, C Novaglio, CS Harrison, RF Heneghan, N Barrier, D Bianchi, L Bopp, A Bryndum-Buchholz, GL Britten, M Büchner, WWL Cheung, V Christensen, M Coll, JP Dunne,  JD Everett, JA Fernandes-Salvador, EA Fulton, ED Galbraith, D Gascuel, J Guiet, JG John, JS Link, HK Lotze, O Maury, K Ortega-Cisneros, J Palacios-Abrantes, CM Petrik, H du Pontavice, J Rault, AJ Richardson, L Shannon, Y-J Shin, J Steenbeek, CA Stock, & JL Blanchard (2021) Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 11 (11), 973–981--


### Fish stock health

Changes, either perceived or real, in the health of fisheries is one of the leading causes of fisheries conflict. We used catch trends, or percent change in fish catch year-over-year, that are a good proxy for the health of the fisheries within each exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Data are publicly available from the [Ocean Health Index](https://oceanhealthindex.org/global-scores/data-download/).

--_Reference_--

--Halpern BS, Longo C, Hardy D, McLeod KL, Samhouri JF, Katona SK, Kleisner K, Lester SE, O’Leary J, Ranelletti M, Rosenberg AA, Scarborough C, Selig ER, Best BD, Brumbaugh DR, Chapin FS, Crowder LB, Daly KL, Doney SC, Elfes C, Fogarty MJ, Gaines SD, Jacobsen KI, Karrer LB, Leslie HM, Neeley E, Pauly D, Polasky S, Ris B, St Martin K, Stone GS, Sumaila UR, & Zeller D. (2012) An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean. Nature. 2012;488: 615–620. doi:10.1038/nature11397--

### Foreign fishing effort

The presence of foreign fishing vessels within national maritime zones is one of the most common causes of fisheries conflict. We used data measuring the amount of time foreign vessels spent actively fishing inside an EEZ. Data are publicly available from [Global Fishing Watch.](https://www.globalfishingwatch.org)

--_Reference_--

--Global Fishing Watch. [2023] [www.globalfishingwatch.org](https://www.globalfishingwatch.org)--

### Blue foods nutritional dependence

As fish move in and out of coastal waters, the food security of coastal communities will be tested by changes in fish abundance. We calculated the proportion of total animal protein derived from aquatic, or blue, food sources to account for nutritional dependence of a given country. Data are publicly available from the [UN Food and Agriculture Organization.](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home)

### Gross domestic product

The strength of governance of a country—the ability to monitor its waters, protect its borders, and enforce maritime laws—is also a major factor in reducing the risk of fisheries conflict. While not a direct measurement of governance, we used the gross domestic product of a country, normalized by the population size, as a proxy of governance. Studies show GDP per capita is strongly correlated with the capacity of a state to govern. Data are publicly available from the [International Monetary Fund.](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD)

### Militarized fisheries disputes

We used observations of international (between-country) militarized fisheries disputes to highlight areas that have historically seen high-level conflict over fisheries. These data are a subset of the [Militarized Interstate Dispute](https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/mids/), as analyzed in [Hendrix et al. 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X22001841). Data are available by contacting the authors as listed in the publication, or by contacting Oceans Futures.

--_Reference_--

--Hendrix, Cullen, Sarah Glaser, & Joshua Lambert & Paige Roberts. (2022) Global climate, El Niño, and militarized fisheries disputes in the East and South China Seas. Marine Policy. 143(105137).--

### Conflict intensity (non-fisheries)

The recent history of violent conflict within a country is a leading indicator of future conflict. We used observations of armed conflict within a country from the past ten years, standardized by population size. Data are publicly available from the [Uppsala Data Conflict Program.](https://ucdp.uu.se/)

--_References_--

- --Davies, Shawn, Therese Pettersson & Magnus Öberg (2023) Organized violence 1989-2022 and the return of conflicts between states? _Journal of Peace Research_ 60(4).--
- --Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013) Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. _Journal of Peace Research_ 50(4).--

### Fisheries conflict (Horn of Africa and Ecuador Spotlights)

Small-scale conflicts over fisheries are of great importance for informing the theory behind our hotspot calculations. The maps of fisheries conflict events contained in our Spotlights on the Horn of Africa and Ecuador were built from datasets of fisheries conflicts identified from media reports and reported in [Devlin et al. (2022).](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00223433211038476?casa_token=qT41nLS-Z4QAAAAA%3AQ2LlX-U_4WCA8leB6m5vIx-7T66yn-0mgHKjHuQ_mH8zzT7Jykrqp_dpxZnJ4O1s0DCreWrsJP2YIts) The approach is commonly used to identify and classify conflict events in a variety of projects. Data for Horn of Africa are publicly available from the [Journal of Peace Research.](https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c0142c7c-f74b-468e-9c1d-aa6e5b57daab/Devlin%20et%20al.%20replication%20data%20and%20OA.zip)

--_Reference_--

--Devlin C, Glaser SM, Lambert JE, & Villegas CE (2022) The causes and consequences of fisheries conflict around the Horn of Africa. Journal of Peace Research. 59(6). https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211038476--

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